Translated: "According To Initial Estimates, The Left Comes First In The Second Round Of The Legislative

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https://www.lemonde.fr/politique/live/2024/07/07/en-direct-resultats-des-legislatives-2024-suivez-la-soiree-electorale-du-second-tour_6247441_823448.html

Selon de premières estimations, la gauche arrive en tête au second tour des législatives, légèrement devant le camp présidentiel

A 20 heures, d’après les premières estimations de l’institut Ipsos et du groupe Talan pour France Télévisions, Radio France, France 24/RFI et LCP-Assemblée nationale, la coalition de gauche Nouveau Front populaire arriverait en tête au second tour des élections législatives, avec entre 172 et 192 sièges.

Le camp présidentiel rassemblé sous la bannière Ensemble décrocherait quant à lui entre 150 et 170 sièges.

Le Rassemblement national et ses alliés (la fraction du parti Les Républicains qui a suivi le président contesté du parti, Eric Ciotti, dans son alliance avec le RN) obtiendraient quant à eux de 132 à 152 sièges.

Le parti Les Républicains, pour sa part, décrocherait entre 57 et 67 sièges."

Translated: "According to initial estimates, the left comes first in the second round of the legislative elections, slightly ahead of the presidential camp.

At 8 p.m., according to the first estimates from the Ipsos institute with the Talan group for France Télévisions, Radio France, France24/RFI and LCP-National Assembly, the left-wing coalition Nouveau Front populaire comes out on top in the second round of elections legislative elections, with between 172 and 192 seats.

The presidential camp gathered under the Ensemble banner would win between 150 and 170 seats.

The National Rally and its allies (the fraction of the Les Républicains party which followed the contested president of the party, Eric Ciotti, in his alliance with the RN) would obtain from 132 to 152 seats.

The Les Républicains party, for its part, would win between 57 and 67 seats."

Let's see how it goes.

We'll have the first results of the French legislative election in 5 hours. On the off chance that someone who reads this is still on the fence, go vote for whichever candidate isn't RN.

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10 months ago

So, Gabriel Attal somehow took a clear-ish position against the far-right. Truly, we live in an age of miracles.

The Prime Minister said that not one vote should go to the RN. In circonscriptions where their candidate is third, they should quit in favor of "another candidate who, like us, defends the values ​​of the Republic".

This is, overall, good news. The government has managed to talk about the far-right without making any references to what they call the far-left. What worries me is that they haven't clearly said that any NFP candidate is a better choice than an RN candidate.

Candidates have until Tuesday to confirm their candidacy. I truly hope that everyone will keep it together for a week, eat crows and desist when necessary, and that on Sunday we will achieve the best result possible, which is mediocre.

Mediocre is better than far-right. Many can survive mediocre who couldn't survive far-right. Final verdict is next Sunday, and until then, everyone, good luck and goodnight.

So while we wait to see how low we've slid on this slippery slope, I thought I'd give a primer on how legislative elections work in France.

The first thing to know is that it's more like 577 local elections. In order to be elected, a candidate has to win in the circonscription in which they were campaigning.

The second thing to know is that in order to win on the first round of the election, a candidate must have at least 50% of the votes AND 25% of those registered. This means that if, as has happened in La Martinique, a candidate has 63% of the votes but the turn-out was low (estimated around 25%, which is low but higher than it was in the last election), they still get a second round.

Now, for the second round. Are qualified 1. The candidate who had the most votes and 2. Any candidate that had 12,5% of those registered to vote. Once again, this means that the turn-out is a factor in who gets to participate in the second round. It also means that it is possible for a second round to have a "triangulaire", that is to say 3 candidates in the second round (technically, it means that it's possible to have four candidates).

At time of writing, it is estimated that between 65 and 85 representatives have been elected on the first round, and that there will be between 285 and 315 triangulaires (based on the data given by Le Monde, which is based on Ipsos data). Out of 577 seats. This means that in a lot of circonscriptions, there will most probably be one RN candidate, one NFP candidate and one candidate from the presidential party.

On the left, several political leaders have already announced that if their candidates arrived third and a RN candidate was qualified for the second round, they would give up the election and encourage people to vote for whoever else was qualified.

And now the big question: will the presidential party do the same? Gabriel Attal, the Prime Minister, is expected to talk to the press tonight. I, personally, will be drinking and obsessively refreshing the news page.


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6 months ago

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3 weeks ago

i think the thing about intracommunity conflict over who can 'claim' certain queer figures from the ancient world (e.g., was sappho a lesbian or bisexual, was iphis a lesbian or a trans man) is that it basically never tells us anything interesting or new about the ancient material and only ever becomes an opportunity for ppl to show their worst, most vitriolic assumptions about the experiences of other queer people today.

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all of this has no effect on sappho (dead) or iphis (fictional), but it does have an effect on the queer people today who get caught in the crosshairs when ancient figures are used as cudgels and mouthpieces to lend historical authority to contemporary disputes. when really it seems like the most historiographically responsible answer to "was [ancient figure] a [queer interpretation a] or [queer interpretation b]" is "yes. and no. and original historical context matters. and the way that figure has been interpreted outside of their original historical context also matters. and that original historical context usually can't be completely reconstructed. and also we don't need the certainty of complete reconstruction to draw connections. and also ancient queerness looks a lot different than we expect. and also modern queerness looks a lot different than we expect."

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