envirographs

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Per capita CO2 emissions in Europe

Rhino poaching in South Africa decreased for the third year in a row, according to South African Minister of Water and Environmental Affairs, Edna Molewa. But the number is still unsustainably high, with about 3 rhinos killed per day in South Africa.

Rising incomes in Asian nations, such as Vietnam and China, is driving a renewed poaching boom for rhino horns, and poachers are finding new ways to avoid detection of exports.

Original Article

A somewhat pessimistic view of climate diplomacy by Eduardo Porter in the New York Times: In the 30 years since the first international meeting on climate change in 1988 in Toronto, temperatures continue to rise and greenhouse gas emissions are greater than ever. 

Original article

The cost of offshore wind in America is dropping, from 24¢/kWh for the operational Block Island wind farm, to 13¢/kWH for two proposed projects in MD, to an expected 10¢/kWh for two projects in MA. But German offshore wind is only 5¢/kWh. Why is German offshore wind so cheap, and how can US offshore achieve those prices and compte with natural gas (~7¢/kWh).

The biggest factor is perceived risk by financial backers due to regulatory uncertainty. A clear national policy on offshore wind, and a national commitment to developing offshore wind resources, could drive those costs down.

Also increasing cost is the lack of a domestic supply chain and infrastructure. If the US invests in a domestic supply chain, including ports to service offshore wind (as is being done in New Bedford, MA), US offshore wind could become cost competitive with natural gas.

Original Article

Yes, the eastern US is frigid. Yes, the average global temperature is warmer than average.

Temperature anomalies on December 29, 2017

From The Guardian:

In the past two decades, 10% of the earth’s wilderness has been lost due to human pressure, a mapping study by the University of Queensland has found... These pristine wild places exist in inhospitable locations: the deserts of Central Australia; the Amazon rainforest in South America; Africa; the Tibetan plateau in central Asia; and the boreal forests of Canada and Russia. They are being encroached on by logging, oil and gas exploration, mining, roads and agriculture.

Pollution-related mortality in Europe

According to environmental historian Philip Wright, declining oil transport by the Trans-Alaska Pipeline is one impetus for drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR). Less oil in the pipeline means the oil moves slows and cools down faster, resulting in technical problems like ice and wax buildup. Drilling proponents argue that drilling in ANWR is necessary to increase the oil supply in the pipeline.

October 2017 was the warmest October on record for all 6 New England states.

In a report Tuesday, Environment and Climate Change Canada said the 51 separate herds [of boreal caribou] across the country remain under pressure from human and natural disturbances to their habitat more than five years after the federal and provincial governments concluded a protection agreement.

The range of the boreal caribou extends across the country from Yukon to Labrador, but its forest habitat has been increasingly disturbed by industrial activity such as forestry, mining and oil and gas development, as well as by forest fires, the spread of pests and other impacts of climate change.

Carbon emissions from energy production decreased by 89 million metric tons (MMmt), from 2015 to 2016, an annual percent change of 1.7%. 

The 1.7% drop in emissions occurred despite an increase in real gross domestic product (GDP) of 1.5% over that period. Other factors, most significantly greater use of energy sources (like renewables and natural gas) that emit less carbon dioxide than coal, more than offset the growth in GDP.

Emissions have declined in 6 out of the past 10 years, and energy‐related CO2 emissions in 2016 14% below 2005 levels.

A lacy, cloud-like pattern drifting across a Denver-area radar screen turned out to be a 70-mile-wide (110-kilometer) wave of butterflies, forecasters say... An unusually large number of painted ladies, which are sometimes mistaken for monarch butterflies, has descended on Colorado’s Front Range in recent weeks, feeding on flowers and sometimes flying together in what seem like clouds.

Fourteen US states generate at least 10% of their energy from wind power.

Most (59%) Americans say that stricter environmental laws and regulations are worth the economic cost, but there is a sharp partisan divide. Democrats overwhelming (77%) favor stricter environmental laws and regulations, but only 36% of Republicans agree. But this 41-point opinion gap is relatively recent. In 1994, the gap was only 8 points. Yet over the decades views of Republican and Democratic voters have diverged, with the divergence occurring rapidly and dramatically starting around 2008. 

From USA Today:

U.S. Geological Survey data released Wednesday shows [Glacier National Park’s] 37 glaciers, along with two others on federal Forest Service land, have shrunk an average of about 40% since 1966... In fact, they'll all be gone within our lifetime, warns Daniel Fagre, a research ecologist with the USGS's Northern Rocky Mountain Science Center... Some masses deteriorated so much, they're no longer large enough to be considered glaciers, which must be at least 25 acres. Some of the glaciers lost up to 85% of their mass.

Agricultural technology advances over the past 50 years have dramatically reduced the amount of land needed to produce crops. This provides hope that ongoing technological improvements will continue to drive down the amount of land placed under agriculture.

This is largely the product of improvements that increase crop yields. In 2014, 1.26 billion hectares of land were spared from cultivation due to yield improvements in growing cereals.

In 2013 the Energy Information Administration (EIA) projected global coal use to grow 39% by 2040. Their 2017 projected revises that growth to... about 1%.

Climate change is hitting Georgia’s peach industry, where an unusually warm winter this year let to a dramatically reduced peach harvest.

From FiveThirtyEight:

For trees that fruit each year (such as peaches, cherries, blueberries, almonds and other fruits and nuts), cool weather is as important as warm. Cold air and less sunlight trigger the release of chemicals that halt trees’ growth, prepare them to withstand freezing temperatures and enable them to resume growing the following spring. When a tree enters this dormant state, it sets a kind of internal seasonal alarm clock that goes off once the tree has spent enough time in chilly temperatures. This countdown is measured in so-called chill hours — the amount of time the temperature is between 32 and 45 degrees Fahrenheit. When crops don’t get the chill hours they expect, they can’t properly reset. Buds are delayed, and instead of ripening into juicy, delicious fruit, they remain small and underdeveloped.

This last winter, middle Georgia got about 400 chill hours during what Chavez described as the usual dormancy period for peaches (roughly Oct. 1 to Feb. 10). The winter before, while still on the low side, had closer to 600 chill hours. But that 200-hour difference meant several peach varieties that had produced fruit in 2016 never bloomed this year.

As shown in the last image, this reduction in chill hours is not unique to Georgia, and will impact farmers growing fruit and nut trees.

The sex of a sea turtle hatching is determined by temperature. Nests incubated at cooler temperatures produce more males, while nests incubated at warmer temperatures produce more females.

This could be a problem with climate change. As global temperatures rise, nests will be incubated at higher temperatures, producing fewer males. As this study found, climate change could lead to turtle nests with few to no males, skewing sex ratios and endangering the persistence of sea turtle populations. As the authors note:

“[O]nce incubation temperatures are 35°C, there are almost no more males produced (1 per 50 000 eggs laid)... As turtles return to the rough neighbourhood of their natal breeding grounds, it seems likely that for populations already producing more than 80% females, there will be a real extinction risk if they continue to nest at the same time of year and conditions warm by a few degrees.” 

But the bigger issue may be the increasing number of unviable eggs with rising temperatures. As the authors claim:

“[T]he primary concern in scenarios of climate change and rising incubation temperatures [is]... the high hatchling mortality in excessively warm nests...While climate warming still poses a threat to sea turtles, it is not the skewed sex ratios per se that will threaten population survival but rather higher mortality within clutches.”

A study in the journal Science Advances looked at population trends of sea turtles across 299 populations for which there was publicly available data. The image shows regions where populations of sea turtles are increasing (green) and decreasing (red). Of the regional populations, there is an upward trend in 12 and a downward trend in 5, suggesting a possible rebound of sea turtle populations, albeit challenges remain.

CC = C. caretta (loggerhead turtle) CM = C. mydas (green turtle) DC = D. coriacea (leatherback sea turtle) EI = E. imbricata (hawksbill turtle) LK = L. kempii (Kemp’s ridley) LO = L. olivacea (olive ridley) ND = N. depressus (flatback turtle)

From National Geographic:

Four national monuments in the American West could be shrunk and six others opened up to permit more mining, grazing, logging, and commercial fishing if President Trump follows the recommendations of Interior Secretary Ryan Zinke...

If enacted, the modifications would represent the most sweeping changes to existing national monuments by any sitting president — and are sure to set off a legal battle over presidential powers likely to reach the U.S. Supreme Court.

Here are the threatened monuments:

Facing size reduction: 4. Cascade-Siskiyou, Oregon/California 12. Gold Butte, Nevada 13. Grand Staircase Escalante, Utah 14. Bears Ears, Utah

Facing management changes (mining, grazing, logging, fishing): 20. Organ Mountains-Desert Peaks, New Mexico 21. Rio Grande del Norte, New Mexico 22. Katahdin Woods and Waters, Maine C. Pacific Remote Islands, south of Hawaii  D. Rose Atoll, by American Samoa E. Northeast Canyons and Seamounts, off the coast of Massahcusetts

From Bloomberg:

The U.K. said in July it will ban sales of diesel- and gasoline-fueled cars by 2040, two weeks after France announced a similar plan to reduce air pollution and meet targets to keep global warming below 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit).

China will set a deadline for automakers to end sales of fossil-fuel-powered vehicles, becoming the biggest market to do so in a move that will accelerate the push into the electric car market... The looming ban on combustion-engine automobiles will goad both local and global automakers to focus on introducing more zero-emission electric cars to help clean up smog-choked major cities.

Percent of electricity produced from renewable sources

From Nature:

“[U]nlike the other [large American] predators, coyotes have thrived in the past 150 years. Once restricted to the western plains, they now occupy most of the continent and have invaded farms and cities, where they have expanded their diet to include squirrels, household pets and discarded fast food.

Researchers have long known the coyote as a master of adaptation, but studies over the past few years are now revealing how [they] succeed where many other creatures have suffered. Coyotes have flourished in part by exploiting the changes that people have made to the environment.

Also, fun fact: 

The [coyotes] that arrived in the northeastern United States and Canada in the 1940s and 50s were significantly larger on average than those on the Great Plains...  [Researchers] found that these northeastern coyotes carried genes from Great Lakes wolves, showing that the two species had interbred as the coyotes passed through that region. “Coyotes mated with wolves in the 1800s, when wolf populations were at low density because of human persecution,” says Kays. In those circumstances, wolves had a hard time finding wolf mates, so they settled for coyotes.

Compared with the ancestral coyotes from the plains, the northeastern coyote–wolf hybrids have larger skulls, with more substantial anchoring points for their jaw muscles. Thanks in part to those changes, these beefy coyotes can take down larger prey.

The Sulztalferner glacier from 1990 and 2017.  Red arrow is where the glacier ended in 1990, yellow arrow where it ended in 2017, purple dots are the snowline, and the green arrow an area of exposed bedrock amidst the glacier.

 Sulztalferner is a glacier in the Alps of Austria... between 1969 and 2003, 14 of the 88 glaciers in this range disappeared. The area of these glaciers was to 54.1 km2 in 1969, but only 36.9 km2 in 2003. 

In 1990 the Sulztalferner glacier was 3050 m long; in 2017 the glacier is 2100 m long.

Source: AGU 

Early September 2017 saw wildfires raging through the American west.

“2017 is on track to be one of the worst years for wildfires in the US on record, with a total of 8.1 million acres burned as of September 13 — already well above the annual to-date average of 6 million acres for the past decade.”

And this results in poor air quality in the region as fires throw smoke and particulate matter into the air. The middle map above shows air quality on September 6, 2017, in the American west, with darker colors indicating more hazardous air. 

Consider Seeley, MT (last image), where measurements of particulate matter smaller than 2.5 microns (PM2.5) show a spike of 214.6 micrograms per cubic meter. 

“Even in tiny concentrations... particulates can increase visits to the emergency room, especially for the elderly and people with chronic breathing problems...  research shows that when pollution is very high, over 37 [micrograms per cubic meter], we start to see health consequences”

With climate change increasing temperatures and decreasing precipitation, the American west will likely experience more fires and more dangerous air quality in the future.

Quoted text from Vox

From Vox:

“In recent years, China, the world’s largest emitter of carbon dioxide, has been making major efforts to restrain its coal use and shift to cleaner sources of energy. When Donald Trump and other conservatives in the United States complain that China isn’t doing anything about climate change, they simply haven’t been paying attention...

Since 2013, China’s coal consumption has actually fallen — due in part to a major economic slowdown but also in part to sluggish output in heavy industries like steel and cement that have traditionally accounted for half the country’s coal use... On top of that, as China’s leaders start to take global warming seriously, the country has been making massive investments in clean energy. As part of the Paris climate deal, China has pledged to get 20 percent of its energy from low-carbon sources by 2030. The government is planning to install an addition 130 gigawatts of wind and solar by 2020 and making big bets on nuclear power.”

The eclipse fingerprint on solar panels in Missoula, MT.

Source: https://twitter.com/mfrank406/status/899986864303611905

Every year a dead zone forms in the Gulf of Mexico. This year’s dead zone is the largest on record. 

From the New Orleans Times-Picayune:

“Nitrogen and phosphorus pollution enters the Mississippi [River] throughout its watershed, which includes runoff from the Midwest cropland and factory livestock and chicken farms, and pollutants from sewer systems and septic tanks in other locations...The lighter freshwater containing the nutrients creates a layered effect when it reaches the Gulf and the nutrients trigger blooms of phytoplankton - microscopic marine algae - in the spring and summer. The fresher, warmer water in the upper layer is separated from the saltier, colder water in the lower layer, resulting in a barrier to the normal diffusion of oxygen from the surface to the bottom... When the algae dies and sinks to the bottom, it decomposes, using up oxygen in the deeper heavy saltwater and creating dead zone conditions. Those conditions don't change until wind or weather, especially tropical storms or hurricanes, mix the freshwater at the surface into the saltier water.”

A monitoring cruise measured a dead zone of 8,776 square miles, “4 1/2 times the size of the of the goal of about 1,950 square miles set by the federal-state Mississippi River Nutrient/Hypoxia Task Force.” The result are marine life, such as crabs and crustaceans, that die due to oxygen deprivation.