Why Isn’t Every Year The Warmest Year On Record?
Why Isn’t Every Year the Warmest Year on Record?
This just in: 2022 effectively tied for the fifth warmest year since 1880, when our record starts. Here at NASA, we work with our partners at NOAA to track temperatures across Earth’s entire surface, to keep a global record of how our planet is changing.
Overall, Earth is getting hotter.
The warming comes directly from human activities – specifically, the release of greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide from burning fossil fuels. We started burning fossil fuels in earnest during the Industrial Revolution. Activities like driving cars and operating factories continue to release greenhouse gases into our atmosphere, where they trap heat in the atmosphere.
So…if we’re causing Earth to warm, why isn’t every year the hottest year on record?
As 2022 shows, the current global warming isn’t uniform. Every single year isn’t necessarily warmer than every previous year, but it is generally warmer than most of the preceding years. There’s a warming trend.
Earth is a really complex system, with various climate patterns, solar activity, and events like volcanic eruptions that can tip things slightly warmer or cooler.
Climate Patterns
While 2021 and 2022 continued a global trend of warming, they were both a little cooler than 2020, largely because of a natural phenomenon known as La Niña.
La Niña is one third of a climate phenomenon called El Niño Southern Oscillation, also known as ENSO, which can have significant effects around the globe. During La Niña years, ocean temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean cool off slightly. La Niña’s twin, El Niño brings warmer temperatures to the central and eastern Pacific. Neutral years bring ocean temperatures in the region closer to the average.
El Niño and La Niña affect more than ocean temperatures – they can bring changes to rainfall patterns, hurricane frequency, and global average temperature.
We’ve been in a La Niña mode the last three, which has slightly cooled global temperatures. That’s one big reason 2021 and 2022 were cooler than 2020 – which was an El Niño year.
Overall warming is still happening. Current El Niño years are warmer than previous El Niño years, and the same goes for La Niña years. In fact, enough overall warming has occurred that most current La Niña years are warmer than most previous El Niño years. This year was the warmest La Niña year on record.
Solar Activity
Our Sun cycles through periods of more and less activity, on a schedule of about every 11 years. Here on Earth, we might receive slightly less energy — heat — from the Sun during quieter periods and slightly more during active periods.
At NASA, we work with NOAA to track the solar cycle. We kicked off a new one – Solar Cycle 25 – after solar minimum in December 2019. Since then, solar activity has been slightly ramping up.
Because we closely track solar activity, we know that over the past several decades, solar activity hasn't been on the rise, while greenhouse gases have. More importantly, the "fingerprints" we see on the climate, including temperature changes in the upper atmosphere, don't fit the what we'd expect from solar-caused warming. Rather they look like what we expect from increased greenhouse warming, verifying a prediction made decades ago by NASA.
Volcanic Eruptions
Throughout history, volcanoes have driven major shifts in Earth’s climate. Large eruptions can release water vapor — a greenhouse gas like carbon dioxide — which traps additional warmth within our atmosphere.
On the flip side, eruptions that loft lots of ash and soot into the atmosphere can temporarily cool the climate slightly, by reflecting some sunlight back into space.
Like solar activity, we can monitor volcanic eruptions and tease out their effect on variations in our global temperature.
At the End of the Day, It’s Us
Our satellites, airborne missions, and measurements from the ground give us a comprehensive picture of what’s happening on Earth every day. We also have computer models that can skillfully recreate Earth’s climate.
By combining the two, we can see what would happen to global temperature if all the changes were caused by natural forces, like volcanic eruptions or ENSO. By looking at the fingerprints each of these climate drivers leave in our models, it’s perfectly clear: The current global warming we’re experiencing is caused by humans.
For more information about climate change, visit climate.nasa.gov.
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More Posts from Nasa and Others
Landslides in Japan
On Sept. 6, 2018, shortly after the remnants of Typhoon Jebi drenched southern Hokkaido, a powerful earthquake rattled the Japanese island. The 6.6-magnitude quake shook the surface enough to unleash hundreds of landslides.
The Landsat 8 satellite acquired imagery of the widespread damage. An image acquired on Sept. 15, 2018, shows mud and debris in a hilly area east of Abira. For comparison, the previous image shows the same area on July 26, 2017.
Read more about this
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Astronaut Journal Entry - First Days on Space Station
Currently, six humans are living and working on the International Space Station, which orbits 250 miles above our planet at 17,500mph. Below you will find a real journal entry, written in space, by NASA astronaut Scott Tingle.
To read more entires from this series, visit our Space Blogs on Tumblr.
At 22:00, after initial “safing” and unpacking of Soyuz, we finally retired to our quarters. It was very hard to sleep, and I think the busy days leading us to the International Space Station (ISS) were beginning to take their toll. We were scheduled for a full day of work to include familiarization of safety equipment as well as beginning to prepare several science experiments for action.
The SpaceX Dragon cargo craft arrived to ISS a couple days before we did, and its cargo included several experiments that needed to be conducted promptly upon arrival. I was doing a great job of floating from one module to another. Since I was a little behind schedule due to having to learn where everything is, I decided I could speed up my floating to be more expeditious. Well, we know how that usually goes and this time was no exception. I gathered a “bag of knots” (aviator slang for “going really fast”) and began a healthy transition from Node 2 into the Columbus module – where I predictably hit the top of my head. Ouch. The following three days (Tuesday-Saturday) were challenging as we worked to integrate all of our new knowledge and increase our efficiencies. The senior crew was very helpful and understanding. I was very grateful of how they managed our arrival and how they slowly passed down the information we needed to get started. Everything was different from life on Earth. Everything. We quickly figured out that we needed to think differently as we began to adapt to life in space. Drinking water, preparing food, eating food, using the toilet, working, physical training, etc., all different. I had a good handle on the differences and what to expect before I got there. But I didn’t expect that when operations got very busy that my reflexes would respond naturally as they did on Earth. The light bulb came on. I was going to have to move slower and think about everything before I took action. This is why space fliers new to this environment appear to be less efficient than most managers and/or operations planners would like. Adaptation to life in space takes time, and you can’t rush it.
On day three, I finally had the opportunity to look out the Cupola (window facing Earth). My Lord, what a beautiful sight. I could see the sun rising in front of us, darkness below and behind us, and a bright blue ring highlighting the curvature of the Earth as the sun began to rise. Absolutely amazing!
We wrapped up our busy week and celebrated Saturday night by enjoying some rehydrated meats and instant juices! Christmas Eve, we had a few tasks that kept us busy, and the same on Christmas Day. Fortunately, we were able to have video conferences with our families over the holiday, and it was really nice to talk with them. We also had a very short celebration for Christmas after work was done. Our wonderful Behavioral Health Professionals at NASA had sent us Christmas stockings in the SpaceX cargo delivery. I added the small gifts that I brought for the crew – superhero socks! Mark got Hulk socks, Nemo (Norishige Kanai) got Spiderman socks, Joe got Deadpool socks, Anton got Superman socks, and Sasha and I got Batman socks. NOW, we are ready to conquer space!
Find more ‘Captain’s Log’ entries HERE.
Follow NASA astronaut Scott Tingle on Instagram and Twitter.
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@mothdog: What is something everyone needs to know about the International Space Station and science in space?
Why We Celebrate Search and Rescue Technologies on 4/06
Today (4/06), we celebrate the special radio frequency transmitted by emergency beacons to the international search and rescue network.
This 406 MHz frequency, used only for search and rescue, can be "heard" by satellites hundreds of miles above the ground! The satellites then "forward" the location of the beacon back to Earth, helping first responders locate people in distress worldwide, whether from a plane crash, a boating accident or other emergencies.
Our Search and Rescue office, based out of our Goddard Space Flight Center, researches and develops emergency beacon technology, passing the technology to companies who manufacture the beacons, making them available to the public at retail stores. The beacons are designed for personal, maritime and aviation use.
The search and rescue network, Cospas-Sarsat, is an international program that ensures the compatibility of distress alert services with the needs of users. Its current space segment relies on instruments onboard low-Earth and geosynchronous orbiting satellites, hundreds to thousands of miles above us.
Space instruments forward distress signals to the search and rescue ground segment, which is operated by partner organizations around the world! They manage specific regions of the ground network. For example, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) operates the region containing the United States, which reaches across the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans as well as parts of Central and South America.
NOAA notifies organizations that coordinate search and rescue efforts of a 406 MHz distress beacon's activation and location. Within the U.S., the U.S. Air Force responds to land-based emergencies and the U.S. Coast Guard responds to water-based emergencies. Local public service organizations like police and fire departments, as well as civilian volunteers, serve as first responders.
Here at NASA, we research, design and test search and rescue instruments and beacons to refine the existing network. Aeronautical beacon tests took place at our Langley Research Center in 2015. Using a 240-foot-high structure originally used to test Apollo spacecraft, our Search and Rescue team crashed three planes to test the survivability of these beacons, developing guidelines for manufacturers and installation into aircraft.
In the future, first responders will rely on a new constellation of search and rescue instruments on GPS systems on satellites in medium-Earth orbit, not hundreds, but THOUSANDS of miles overhead. These new instruments will enable the search and rescue network to locate a distress signal more quickly than the current system and achieve accuracy an order of magnitude better, from a half mile to approximately 300 feet. Our Search and Rescue office is developing second-generation 406 MHz beacons that make full use of this new system.
We will also incorporate these second-generation beacons into the Orion Crew Survival System. The Advanced Next-Generation Emergency Locator (ANGEL) beacons will be attached to astronaut life preservers. After splashdown, if the Orion crew exits the capsule due to an emergency, these beacons will make sure we know the exact location of floating astronauts! Our Johnson Space Center is testing this technology for used in future human spaceflight and exploration missions.
If you're the owner of an emergency beacon, remember that beacon registration is free, easy and required by law.
To register your beacon, visit: beaconregistration.noaa.gov
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What is it Like to Visit Jupiter?
Jupiter is the largest planet in our solar system. For some perspective, if it were hollow, more than 1,300 Earths could fit inside of it! The giant planet contains two-thirds of all the planetary mass in the solar system and holds more than dozens of moons in its gravitational grip. But what about a visit to this giant planet?
Let’s be honest…Jupiter is not a nice place to visit. It’s a giant ball of gas and there’s nowhere to land. Any spacecraft – or person – passing through the colorful clouds gets crushed and melted. On Jupiter, the pressure is so strong it squishes gas into liquid. Its atmosphere can crush a metal spaceship like a paper cup.
Jupiter’s stripes and swirls are cold, windy clouds of ammonia and water. Jupiter’s Great Red Spot is a giant storm BIGGER THAN EARTH! This storm has lasted hundreds of years.
Since Jupiter’s atmosphere is made up of mostly hydrogen and helium, it’s poisonous. There’s also dangerous radiation, more than 1,000 times the lethal level for a human.
Scientists think that Jupiter’s core may be a thick, super hot soup…up to 50,000 degrees! Woah!
The Moons
Did you know that Jupiter has its own “mini solar system” of 50 moons? Scientists are most interested in the Galilean satellites – which are the four largest moons discovered by Galileo Galilei in 1610.
Today, Galileo would be astounded to know some of the facts about these moons. The moon Io has active volcanos. Ganymede has its own magnetic field while Europa has a frozen crust with liquid-water underneath making it a tempting place to explore for future missions.
When Juno arrives to Jupiter on July 4, it will bring with it a slew of instruments such as infrared imager/spectrometer and vector magnetometer among the half a dozen other scientific tools in its payload.
Juno will avoid Jupiter's highest radiation regions by approaching over the north, dropping to an altitude below the planet's radiation belts – which are analogous to Earth’s Van Allen belts, but far more deadly – and then exiting over the south. To protect sensitive spacecraft electronics, Juno will carry the first radiation shielded electronics vault, a critical feature for enabling sustained exploration in such a heavy radiation environment.
Follow our Juno mission on the web, Facebook, Twitter, YouTube and Tumblr.
Make sure to follow us on Tumblr for your regular dose of space: http://nasa.tumblr.com
SpaceX Dragon: What’s Onboard?
SpaceX is scheduled to launch its Dragon spacecraft into orbit on April 8, which will be the company’s eighth mission under our Commercial Resupply Services contract. This flight will deliver science and supplies to the International Space Station.
The experiments headed to the orbiting laboratory will help us test the use of an expandable space habitat in microgravity, assess the impact of antibodies on muscle wasting in a microgravity environment, use microgravity to seek insight into the interactions of particle flows at the nanoscale level and use protein crystal growth in microgravity to help in the design of new drugs to fight disease. Here’s an in-depth look at each of them:
The Bigelow Expandable Activity Module (BEAM)
Space is in limited supply on the International Space Station, but with BEAM, the amount of crew space could be expanded! BEAM is an experimental expandable capsule that attaches to the space station. After installation, it will expand to roughly 13-feet long and 10.5 feet in diameter, which would provide a large volume where a crew member could enter. During the two-year test mission, astronauts will enter the module for a few hours three-to-four times a year to retrieve sensor data and conduct assessments of the module’s condition.
Why? Expandable habitats greatly decrease the amount of transport volume at launch for future space missions. They not only take up less room on a rocket, but also provide greatly enhanced space for living and working once they are set up.
The Rodent Research-3-Eli Lilly
The Rodent Research-3-Eli Lilly investigation will use mice as a model for human health to study whether certain drugs might prevent muscle or bone loss while in microgravity.
Why? Crew members experience significant decreases in their bone density and muscle mass during spaceflight if they do not get enough exercise during long-duration missions. The results could expand scientist’s understanding of muscle atrophy and bone loss in space, by testing an antibody that has been known to prevent muscle wasting in mice on Earth.
Microbial Observatory-1
The Microbial Observatory-1 experiment will track and monitor changes to microbial flora over time on the space station.
Why? Obtaining data on these microbial flora could help us understand how such microbes could affect crew health during future long-duration missions.
Micro-10
The Micro-10 investigation will study how the stress of microgravity triggers changes in growth, gene expression, physical responses and metabolism of a fungus called Aspergillus nidulans.
Why? This experiment will study fungi in space for the purpose of potentially developing new medicine for use both in space and on Earth. The stressfull environment of space causes changes to all forms of life, from bacteria and fungi, to animals and people.
Genes in Space-1
Genes in Space-1 is a student-designed experiment that will test whether the polymerase chain reaction (PCR) — which is a fast and relatively inexpensive technique that can amplify or “photocopy” small segments of DNA — could be used to study DNA alterations that crew experience during spaceflight.
Why? In space, the human immune system’s function is altered. Findings from this experiment could help combat some of the DNA changes that crew onboard space station experience while on orbit.
Microchannel Diffusion
Nano science and nanotechnology are the study and application of exceptionally small things and can be used across the fields of medicine, biology, computer science and many others. The way fluid moves is very different on this small scale, so scientists want to know how microparticles might interact. The Microchannel Diffusion investigation simulates these interactions by studying them at a larger scale, the microscopic level. This is only possible on the orbiting laboratory, where Earth’s gravity is not strong enough to interact with the molecules in a sample, so they behave more like they would at the nanoscale.
Why? Nanofluidic sensors could measure the air in the space station, or used to deliver drugs to specific places in the body, among other potential uses. Knowledge learned from this investigation may have implications for drug delivery, particle filtration and future technological applications for space exploration.
The CASIS Protein Crystal Growth 4 (CASIS PCG 4)
CASIS PCG 4 is made up of two investigations that both leverage the microgravity environment in the growth of protein crystals and focus on structure-based drug design (SBDD). Growing crystals in microgravity avoids some of the obstacles they face on Earth, such as sedimentation.
Why? SBDD is an integral component in the drug discovery and development process. It relies on three-dimensional, structural information provided by the protein crystallography to inform the design of more potent, effective and selective drugs.
Watch the Launch!
The Dragon capsule will launch on a Falcon 9 rocket from Cape Canaveral Air Force Station in Florida.
Launch coverage begins at 3:15 p.m. EDT, with launch scheduled for 4:43 p.m. Watch live online on NASA Television: nasa.gov/nasatv
Make sure to follow us on Tumblr for your regular dose of space: http://nasa.tumblr.com
Photos of the eclipse are okay and just as neat to look at? Will NASA post to twitter. Will the Space station take photos also?
Yes, we will be posting a ton of photos and you can add to them as well! https://www.flickr.com/groups/nasa-eclipse2017/ I agree, the photos are incredibly cool!
Meet the Artemis Team Returning Humans to the Moon
We. Are. Going 🌙
Today, we introduced the eighteen NASA Astronauts forming the Artemis team. Together, they'll use their diverse range of backgrounds, expertise, and experience to pave the way for humans to return to the Moon, to stay.
Meet the heroes of the future who'll carry us back to the Moon and beyond - the Artemis generation.
Joe Acaba
Fun fact: Joe is a veteran of the U.S. Peace Corps! Get to know Joe personally with this video –> Watch HERE.
Kayla Barron
Fun fact: Kayla got her start in public service through serving in the U.S. Navy. Get to know Kayla personally with this video –> Watch HERE.
Raja Chari
Fun fact: Raja’s nickname is “Grinder,” and he comes from a test pilot background. Get to know Raja personally with this video –> Watch HERE.
Jessica Watkins
Fun fact: Jessica is a rugby national champion winner and geologist. Get to know Jessica personally with this video –> Watch HERE.
Matthew Dominick
Fun fact: Matthew sums himself up as a father, a husband and an explorer. Get to know Matthew personally with this video –> Watch HERE.
Jasmin Moghbeli
Fun fact: Jasmin says she still wakes up every morning and it feels like a “pinch me moment” to think she’s actually an astronaut right now. Get to know Jasmin personally with this video –> Watch HERE.
Victor Glover
Fun fact: Victor’s dream is to work on the surface of the Moon. Get to know Victor personally with this video –> Watch HERE.
Jessica Meir
Fun fact: Jessica was five years old when she knew she wanted to be an astronaut. Get to know Jessica personally with this video –> Watch HERE.
Woody Hoburg
Fun fact: Woody used to spend summers away from graduate school working search and rescue in Yosemite National Park. Get to know Woody personally with this video –> Watch HERE.
Anne McClain
Fun fact: Anne is a West Point alumni who describes herself as an impractical dreamer. Get to know Anne personally with this video –> Watch HERE.
Jonny Kim
Fun fact: Jonny is also a U.S. Navy SEAL with a medical degree from Harvard. Get to know Jonny personally with this video –> Watch HERE.
Nicole Mann
Fun fact: Nicole is a U.S. Lieutenant Colonel in the Marine Corps! Get to know Nicole personally with this video –> Watch HERE.
Kjell Lindgren
Fun fact: Kjell was a flight surgeon, a physician who takes care of astronauts, before applying to be an astronaut himself! Get to know Kjell personally with this video –> Watch HERE.
Christina Koch
Fun fact: Christina set a record for the longest single spaceflight by a woman with a total of 328 days in space. Get to know Christina personally with this video –> Watch HERE.
Frank Rubio
Fun fact: Frank was a Black Hawk helicopter pilot in the U.S. Army and family medical physician. Get to know Frank personally with this video –> Watch HERE.
Stephanie Wilson
Fun fact: Stephanie was the voice in Mission Control leading our NASA Astronauts for the all-woman spacewalk last year. Get to know Stephanie personally with this video –> Watch HERE.
Scott Tingle
Fun fact: Scott said he wanted to be an astronaut in a high school class and the students laughed – look at him now. Get to know Scott personally with this video –> Watch HERE.
Kate Rubins
Fun fact: Kate is actually IN space right now, so she will have to get her official portrait when she comes home! She is also the first person to sequence DNA in space. Get to know Kate personally with this video –> Watch HERE. Stay up to date with our Artemis program and return to the Moon by following NASA Artemis on Twitter, Facebook and Instagram.
Make sure to follow us on Tumblr for your regular dose of space: http://nasa.tumblr.com.
Space is Hard
Earlier this week weather scrubbed our SpaceX launch to the International Space Station. NASA astronauts Robert Behnken and Douglas Hurley were strapped into their Crew Dragon spacecraft when ground teams called off the 4:33pm ET launch due to inclement weather brought on by Tropical Storm Bertha off the southeastern U.S. coast. The Falcon 9 rocket is healthy, but we want to get it right. Safety is paramount.
In this black and white infrared image, a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket with the company's Crew Dragon spacecraft onboard is seen on the launch pad at Launch Complex 39A. Photo credit: NASA/Joel Kowsky
Join us for our next launch attempt on Saturday, May 30, at 3:22 p.m. EDT (7:22 p.m. UTC). Our live coverage starts at 11 a.m. EDT (3 p.m. UTC) on nasa.gov. As part of our Commercial Crew Program, the liftoff will mark the first time in nearly a decade that our astronauts launch on a brand new spacecraft from U.S. soil. We're ready.
Let's light this candle. 🚀
Make sure to follow us on Tumblr for your regular dose of space: http://nasa.tumblr.com
It’s a Bird! It’s a Plane! It’s NASA’s Five Newest Airborne Campaigns!
We’re not just doing research in space! From the land, the sea and the sky, we study our planet up close. Right now, we’re gearing up for our newest round of Earth Expeditions, using planes, boats and instruments on the ground to study Earth and how it’s changing.
The newest round of campaigns takes place all across the United States – from Virginia to Louisiana to Kansas to California.
The five newest missions will combine measurements from the ground, the sea, air and space to investigate storms, sea level rise and processes in the atmosphere and ocean.
Let’s meet the newest Earth science missions:
1. IMPACTS
The Investigation of Microphysics and Precipitation for Atlantic Coast-Threatening Snowstorms will start from Wallops Flight Facility in Virginia to understand how bands of snow form during winter storms in the East Coast. This research will help us better forecast intense snowfall during extreme winter weather.
2. ACTIVATE
Flying out of Langley Research Center, the Aerosol Cloud Meteorology Interactions over the Western Atlantic Experiment is studying how specific types of clouds over oceans affect Earth’s energy balance and water cycle. The energy balance is the exchange of heat and light from the Sun entering Earth’s atmosphere vs. what escapes back into space.
3. Delta-X
Farther south, Delta-X is flying three planes around the Mississippi River Delta to study how land is deposited and maintained by natural processes. Studying these processes can help us understand what will happen as sea levels continue to rise.
4. DCOTSS
Heading out to the Midwest this summer, the Dynamics and Chemistry of the Summer Stratosphere mission will study how thunderstorms can carry pollutants from high in the atmosphere deep into the lower stratosphere, where they can affect ozone levels.
5. S-MODE
About 200 miles off the coast of San Francisco, the Sub-Mesoscale Ocean Dynamics Experiment is using ships, planes and gliders to study the impact that ocean eddies have on how heat moves between the ocean and the atmosphere.
These missions are kicking off in January, so stay tuned for our updates from the field! You can follow along with NASA Expeditions on Twitter and Facebook.
Make sure to follow us on Tumblr for your regular dose of space: http://nasa.tumblr.com.
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